What Memorial Day Does to Electronics Prices: Three Years of Observations, One Forecast

The Premise

Memorial Day is a solemn federal holiday onto which American retail has grafted a large furniture, appliance, and television sale. The Editorial Staff does not attempt to explain this arrangement; we only measure it. We have now measured it across three consecutive years — 2023, 2024, and 2025 — logging prices in the categories we track daily and comparing each advertised discount to the product's trailing 90-day average, our standard test for whether a deal exists or merely a banner does.

This year the holiday falls on Monday, May 25. What follows is what three years of logs say will happen, stated at actuarial temperature.

What Reliably Falls: Televisions

Televisions drop for Memorial Day, genuinely and repeatably. The mechanism is not commemoration but calendar: new model-year panels arrive at retail in spring, and the prior year must leave the building. In each of our three observation years, value and mid-range sets cleared their 90-day averages by 15 to 30% — in May 2025 we logged a 65-inch value-brand set at 27% below its average — while premium OLED moved a more dignified 8 to 12%. These are real discounts by our test, not banners. The sale reliably begins the Thursday before the holiday; last year the prices were live by midday. The sale begins before the holiday it is named for, which is itself a finding.

What Reliably Falls: Appliances

Appliance discounts of "25 to 35% off" are advertised each year, and each year they measure out to a genuine 10 to 18% below trailing street prices — because appliance MSRPs are a myth both parties have agreed to maintain. A $1,099 refrigerator "marked down" from a $1,499 MSRP at which it never once sold is a $1,099 refrigerator. Against its own 90-day average, the discount is real but smaller than the sign. Buyers replacing a functioning appliance can wait for these windows. Buyers replacing a failed one, we have observed, do not consult calendars, or us.

What Does Not Fall: Apple Silicon

Across three Memorial Days, Apple computers have moved barely, and mostly in ways that fail our threshold.

Memorial Day 2023 and 2024 each produced roughly $50 of movement on the then-current MacBook Airs — 4 to 5% off MSRP, well inside ordinary weekly noise. Memorial Day 2025 was the most generous of the three: the MacBook Air M4 recorded its first $100 markdown, to $899. This was 10% off MSRP and widely celebrated. It was also only about 5% below the laptop's then-current 90-day average, because the street price had already been drifting downward for weeks — a real markdown that still failed our test. The banner was new. The number was only somewhat new. We logged it and made tea.

iPhones do not participate in Memorial Day in any measurable way; the iPhone 16 will remain $799 wherever Apple controls the sticker. Base iPads occasionally participate: $299 appearances — a genuine 14% below MSRP — occurred in two of our three years.

The Middle Category

Earbuds and watches drift rather than drop. The AirPods Pro 2 has spent much of its recent life at a street price between $169 and $189 regardless of holidays; Memorial banners tend to re-label whichever end of that range is already in effect. Prior-generation Apple Watches fall genuinely as inventory clears. Current-generation models typically shed $30 to $50 for the weekend — 8 to 12%, hovering at the exact boundary of meaning, where retail prefers to hover.

The Forecast for May 25, 2026

We state the following six predictions now, in writing, to be graded after the weekend. Probabilities represent the staff's consensus and were argued about at unnecessary length.

1. Value and mid-range televisions at 15% or more below their 90-day averages: 90%.

2. MacBook Air M4 13-inch at $849 or below at some point during the weekend: 75%.

3. Base iPad (11-inch A16, MSRP $349) at $299 or lower: 60%.

4. Apple Watch Series 11 (MSRP $399) at $349 or lower: 65%.

5. AirPods Pro 2 at or near $169: 70%.

6. iPad Pro M5 and MacBook Pro M5 limited to token movements of $50 to $150, all failing the 10%-below-average test: 85%.

We will verify each outcome against 90-day averages captured before the weekend begins, and we will publish the grades. Forecasts that cannot be graded are horoscopes.

How to Use the Weekend

If you need a television or a major appliance, this is one of the year's defensible windows; the Thursday-before start means May 21, and early inventory is the best inventory. If you need Apple silicon, apply the only test that matters — 10% or more below the 90-day average — and expect, per prediction 6, to be mildly disappointed. If you can wait, Prime Day sits about seven weeks out in mid-July and has historically out-discounted Memorial Day in every category we track except appliances.

The staff will spend the long weekend as it spends all long weekends: logging prices at 8:00 AM and 6:00 PM, observing the banners without expression, and grading the forecast the following Tuesday. Someone has to. It continues to be us.

— The BuyGetRewards Editorial Staff

Shop Current Deals

We track live prices against each product's 90-day Amazon average, so you can tell a real discount from a banner. Browse today's deals →