A Gregorian Analysis of When Apple Will Take Your Money
We compiled eight years of Apple product release dates into a calendar and discovered that the optimal time to buy anything is always three weeks ago or four months from now. We found this profoundly unsettling.
The Problem
Apple releases new products on a schedule that is almost but not entirely predictable, which is the most inconvenient degree of predictability. Buy too early and a new model arrives weeks later. Buy too late and the product you wanted is backordered for six weeks. The Editorial Staff has constructed a month-by-month guide based on historical data from 2017-2025, because we believe consumer electronics purchasing decisions deserve the same rigor as agricultural planting calendars.
January: Buy Nothing
January is a wasteland for Apple purchases. Holiday deals have ended. No new products are announced. Refurbished inventory from holiday returns begins appearing on Apple's refurbished store around January 15-20, which is the only actionable intelligence we can offer for this month.
Historical January releases: none of consequence since the original HomePod in 2018, a product Apple later discontinued.
February-March: MacBook Air Season
Apple has refreshed the MacBook Air in March for three of the last four years (M1 in 2020 was November, but M2 in 2022, M3 in 2024, and M4 in early 2025 were all Q1). If you need a MacBook Air, the optimal strategy is: wait for the March announcement, then buy the new model, or buy the previous generation at a $100-$200 discount from third-party retailers who are clearing inventory.
The previous-generation MacBook Air discount window is precisely 2-4 weeks after the new model ships. After that, inventory depletes and the deals vanish. We track this window on our deals page with what some might call excessive attention.
March-May: iPad Uncertainty Zone
The iPad refresh schedule is Apple's least predictable product cycle. Evidence:
- iPad Air: March 2022, May 2024
- iPad Pro: October 2022, May 2024
- iPad (base model): September 2021, October 2022
- iPad mini: September 2021, October 2024
There is no pattern here. We looked. We used a spreadsheet with 14 columns. There is no pattern. The Editorial Staff recommends checking the number of days since the last refresh (the website MacRumors maintains a Buyer's Guide with this data) and applying the following rule: if it has been more than 400 days since the last update to your desired iPad model, a new one is likely within 90 days. If it has been fewer than 200 days, buy now.
Between 200 and 400 days is a zone of genuine uncertainty. We cannot help you there. No one can.
June: WWDC Software Announcements
Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference occurs in the first or second week of June every year. New software is announced. Occasionally new hardware appears (Mac Pro in June 2023, Apple Vision Pro announcement in June 2023). More importantly: WWDC tells you what the fall hardware will support. If a major new feature requires new hardware, this is when you learn to wait.
Do not buy a Mac in June unless it was updated within the previous 60 days. The fall refresh is coming.
July: Amazon Prime Day
Prime Day occurs in mid-July (July 11-12 in 2023, July 16-17 in 2024). Apple deals during Prime Day are consistently the best non-Black Friday prices of the year:
- AirPods Pro 2: typically $169 (32% off)
- iPad 10th gen: typically $279 ($70 off)
- Apple Watch SE: typically $189 ($60 off)
- MacBook Air: typically $150-$200 off current generation
These are not clearance prices on old stock. These are current-generation products at genuine discounts. The Editorial Staff considers Prime Day the optimal purchasing window for any Apple accessory or any product updated more than 4 months prior.
August: The Waiting Tax
August is the cruelest month for Apple buyers. The iPhone and Apple Watch announcements are 3-4 weeks away. Current models are at their oldest. Deals exist but carry the psychic weight of knowing newer versions are imminent. We call this the Waiting Tax: the cost of knowing you could wait but choosing not to.
If your current phone is functional, wait. If it is not, buy a refurbished model to bridge the gap. Do not buy a full-price iPhone in August. We state this with the gravity it deserves.
September: iPhone and Apple Watch
Apple announces new iPhones and Apple Watches in the first or second week of September. Pre-orders open the following Friday. Devices ship one week after pre-order. This cadence has not varied since 2017.
Critical pricing note: The previous-generation iPhone drops by $100 in Apple's lineup on announcement day. Third-party retailers (Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart) discount the outgoing model by $150-$250 in the 4-6 weeks following the announcement. This is the best time to buy a one-year-old iPhone, which is a device that is 95% as capable as the new one for 60% of the price.
October: MacBook Pro and (Sometimes) iMac
Apple has refreshed the MacBook Pro in October or November in five of the last six years. The M1 Pro/Max (October 2021), M2 Pro/Max (January 2023 — the exception), M3 Pro/Max (October 2023), M4 Pro/Max (November 2024). If you need a MacBook Pro, October is when you open your wallet.
November: Black Friday (the Main Event)
Apple's own Black Friday sale offers gift cards with purchase ($50-$200 depending on product), not direct discounts. Third-party retailers offer actual price reductions:
- AirPods Pro 2: $154-$169 (lowest annual price)
- MacBook Air: $200-$250 off
- iPad: $80-$100 off
- Apple Watch: $70-$120 off depending on model
Black Friday through Cyber Monday is the single best purchasing window for nearly every Apple product. The Editorial Staff marks these dates on a shared calendar with a solemnity typically reserved for tax deadlines.
December: Diminishing Returns
Deals persist through mid-December but inventory becomes unpredictable. By December 20, most significant discounts have ended. If you are buying a gift, purchase by December 10 to avoid both stockouts and shipping anxiety.
The One-Sentence Summary
Buy current-generation Apple products during Prime Day or Black Friday; buy previous-generation products in the 4-6 weeks after the new model launches; buy nothing in January or August. We track all of these pricing events on our deals page, because we believe someone should.
— The BuyGetRewards Editorial Staff
